Forecasts for 2026 for the Spanish property market: Costa del Sol leading the way [MARKET ANALYSIS]

The Costa del Sol remains one of the most desirable property markets in Europe, with prices predicted to rise by 5-9% in top locations by 2026. This is good news for Poles who regularly invest in houses and flats in Spain. Read this year’s forecasts, prepared by Agnes Inversiones.

Spanish property prices expected to rise in 2026

Most forecasts predict that Spanish property prices will continue to rise in 2026, albeit at a slower pace than in 2023-25. National estimates (e.g. CaixaBank and Bankinter) predict moderate price growth for this year – of around 5-7% across Spain. Limited housing supply, strong demand and still relatively favourable credit conditions are key factors that support the continuing upward trend.

The Spanish market is being strongly influenced by demand from domestic and foreign buyers – especially for coastal properties. In turn, the expected slight reduction in interest rates could further stimulate demand and the availability of property in certain segments. Government housing policies, including rental regulations under the 'Ley por el derecho a la vivienda’, could affect investment patterns and returns in high-rent markets.

Growth is expected to continue in 2026, but at a more moderate pace – compared to the post-pandemic surge. Property price growth forecasts range from around 5 to 7%, with the most popular locations and luxury segments performing above average.

Costa del Sol leads the property market in Spain

This year’s forecasts for the Costa del Sol overwhelmingly point to higher price growth. In top coastal areas such as Marbella, Estepona, Mijas and Benalmádena, it is predicted at 5-9% – with an upward trend for selected luxury developments – especially in Marbella itself. It is estimated that prices on the coast are increasing by 3-5% more than the national average, and in the best micro-markets by up to 7-9%.

Prices reached record levels in 2025 and forecasts for 2026 predict continued high interest. Regions such as Marbella, which forms the 'Golden Triangle’ with Benahavís and Estepona, have high price levels, with the best locations operating essentially independently of the national cycle – often at much higher prices.

Why invest in property on the Costa del Sol?

On the Costa del Sol, the luxury real estate market remains exceptionally strong and is a pillar of the local economy – accounting for a significant proportion of GDP and employment. New luxury projects – including fully sold-out developments such as Uno Marbella – together with a strong presence of foreign buyers reinforce the growth prospects in 2026. Rental demand – both holiday and long-term – remains strong, which translates into investment profitability in seaside resorts. Rental investment profitability may be negatively impacted by locally introduced restrictions – on short-term rentals.

Transaction volumes on the Costa del Sol are high, with a significant proportion of international buyers still active – this is over 60% in locations such as Marbella. A prospective location is Estepona – increasingly seen as the new star of the Costa del Sol. This translates into expected high international demand and higher price dynamics. Mijas and Benalmádena are also gaining, attracting increasing investor interest – due to lower price levels and infrastructure development.

Summary of projections for 2026

Forecast for the property market in Spain

• continued price increases and their moderate pace (5-7%),
• a more balanced and stable market, less dynamic than in 2023-25,
• The best investments are urban and coastal areas with high demand, including locations that provide a high standard of living,
• low mortgage rates (at or even below 2%).

Forecast for the property market on the Costa del Sol

• Price trend: stronger than the national average (5-9% growth in luxury segments),
• global demand, the appeal of luxury real estate and lifestyle migration trends as market drivers,
• The main risks: high price levels – achieved after record highs, in the long term – risk of rising interest rates, global geopolitical risks, climate risk.